What are the odds a meteor will destroy a city?

Risk of an asteroid destroying a city


Ivezic, Zeljko. 2013. Personal communication.

Schneider A., Friedl M.A. & Potere D. (2009). A new map of global urban extent from MODIS satellite data, Environmental Research Letters, 4 (4) 044003. DOI:

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  1. Questions:

    1) These odds are over what time period?
    2) How big is large?
    3) Would a “large” meteor that “missed” a city still cause, say, a giant tsunami? Or sufficient environmental/atmospheric/climatological impact that it would affect city-dwellers?
    4) Why did you pick on London? :)

  2. We had the Tunguska event in 1908 and of course the Chelyabinsk meteor on 15 February 2013. Since this is around 1 every hundred years, they must not fit this calculation’s definition of “large”. However they were still dangerous, so the admonition not to worry may be misplaced.